NCAA Volleyball Bubble Watch 10/18/16
As far as NCAA Women’s Indoor Volleyball is concerned, there
are 6 power conferences that almost always send multiple teams to the dance,
rather than the traditional “Power 5.” The Power 5, plus the West Coast
Conference (WCC), consistently occupy the vast majority of the AVCA top 25, if
not entirely.
Having followed NCAA men’s and women’s basketball for years,
one of my favorite things to follow is the bracketology and the “bubble watch” –
who’s a lock, who’s probably in, who is a longshot, etc. I only recently
started following college volleyball (Fall 2013), but since I began, I’ve gone
to dozens of games and followed along nationally with all of the top teams. I’ve
come to notice that there really aren’t any people out there forecasting the
64-team field for the NCAA volleyball tournament (but if you do know of one, I’d
love to take a look at it, because I may have missed something).
Which brings me to why I am writing this. As a lover of both
sports and statistics alike, working through numbers like RPI and strength of
schedule to try to determine the best teams is something I already do just for
fun. Then I thought “Hey, since nobody else is doing one, why don’t I actually
put it online and expose myself to undying ridicule?” Jokes aside, I would love
to spark the conversation, and this seems to be as good of a way as any.
With a 64-team field and 32 conferences that each earn an
automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, there are also 32 at-large bids
available, most of which will go to the power conferences. Keep in mind, though
– like basketball, many conferences have conference tournaments to decide the
automatic bid, so if the overwhelming favorite (I’m looking at you, Dayton and
Western Kentucky) were somehow to lose, an at-large bid could easily be stolen.
Some notes before we get started:
1.
This isn’t the first time I’ve done something
like this, but it definitely is the first time I’ve published something. I’d
love to hear feedback, up to and including reasonable constructive criticism.
But please explain why you think something is wrong. I’m not interested in
flames.
2.
There isn’t really a formula that I’m working
with, but I am looking at all of these numbers/concepts: RPI, SOS, conference
RPI, conference record, marquee wins, and damaging losses. Thanks to
masseyratings.com for automated power rankings, and to ncaa.com for the RPI.
3.
At this point in the season, with the regular
season just over half done (8 out of 14 weeks completed), almost nobody is
going to be a lock. When I use the term lock, I mean this team could suffer a
total meltdown and lose most of the games left on their schedule, and they
would still make the tournament. So at this point, the few locks that do exist
are ones that play in top-tier conferences and therefore have very few
potential losses remaining.
4.
With that said, that doesn’t mean I think Texas,
Kansas, Florida, or North Carolina aren’t going to make the field. I’m just not
going to lock teams up until both common sense AND the numbers back that up.
There are too many potential eyesores in those conferences (Texas Tech, Arkansas,
Boston College, etc.) to support locking anyone at this point.
Here we go!
Big Ten Conference
There’s a lot to work with here. Obviously, a conference that
has had three of the top four teams in the country for multiple weeks in a row,
including the #1 spot for the entire season, is going to field a lot of teams.
This is the only conference at this point that I feel comfortable locking in a
few teams, simply because there aren’t many games left on the schedule that
could really hurt. Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin will be in the tournament, even if they were to fall
apart tomorrow. For the rest:
Near-locks:
Penn State (RPI: 19) (16-3,
8-0 Big Ten) – For a team with as rich of a volleyball history as Penn
State, seeing them as low as #20 in the AVCA poll this year was really strange.
Going 0-2 in the Pac-12/Big Ten Challenge against Stanford and Colorado, while by
no means embarrassing, was still very unusual, and dropped PSU to 2-3 on the
season. Then the Nittany Lions of old showed up: this team hasn’t lost since.
The perfect Big Ten start isn’t quite as remarkable as you might think (already
played Rutgers twice, plus Northwestern), but a 16-3 record including a win
over then-#1 Minnesota? They’ll be fine.
Michigan State (RPI: 9)
(16-4, 5-3 Big Ten)
Should be in:
Michigan (RPI: 10) (16-4,
5-3 Big Ten)
In, for now:
Purdue (RPI: 12)
(12-7, 2-6 Big Ten) – I don’t know of a team this season that’s been as
much of an enigma as the Boilermakers. This team has beaten Stanford (in Palo
Alto) and took out Kansas in West Lafayette as well. But then conference play
started. Other than a win against rival Indiana (meh) and bottom-feeder
Rutgers, Purdue hasn’t won a game yet in conference. Are almost all of the
losses totally excusable? Sure. Losses at home to Wisconsin, Minnesota, and
Penn State are nothing to be ashamed of, nor is a loss in Lincoln to the
Cornhuskers. But at some point, this team needs to start winning again. SOS can
only take you so far.
Ohio State (RPI: 29) (13-7,
3-5 Big Ten)
Illinois (RPI: 50) (13-6,
6-2 Big Ten)
Work to do:
Iowa (RPI: 53) (15-5,
5-3 Big Ten)
Indiana (RPI: 51)
(13-8, 2-6 Big Ten)
Pacific Twelve
Conference
Welcome to the conference of teams ranging from good to very
good, but without any dominant teams. The Pac-12 standings right now look
downright silly: Washington leads at 6-2, and has a one game lead on second
place, which is shared by SEVEN TEAMS! Utah, Arizona, USC, UCLA, Stanford,
Oregon and Washington State all have exactly a 5-3 record in conference four
weeks in. This means nobody is locked, but lots of teams have “should be in”
status.
Near-locks:
Washington (RPI: 7)
(16-2, 6-2 Pac-12)
Should be in:
Washington State (RPI:
21) (15-5, 5-3 Pac-12)
Stanford (RPI: 11) (11-5,
5-3 Pac-12)
UCLA (RPI: 14) (14-4,
5-3 Pac-12)
Utah (RPI: 16) (14-5,
5-3 Pac-12) – There are many teams that are doing much better this season
that last year, including two in the Pac-12 alone – Wazzu and these Utes. Being
primarily a Pac-12 volleyball follower, I saw both of these rises coming – but to
different degrees. WSU had a lot of young talent last year, and now-senior Kyra
Holt is one of the best players nobody had heard of around the country last
year because the Cougars weren’t very good. WSU being vastly improved isn’t
that surprising, although I didn’t predict it would happen quite so fast. But
Utah caught me off guard. Improvements defensively, including the emergence of
So. DS/L Megan Shughrou, has helped the Utes keep Pac-12 opponents to a
sub-.200 hitting percentage. Big wins at Stanford and against archrival BYU are
huge in front of the committee, too.
Oregon (RPI: 25) (12-5,
5-3 Pac-12)
USC (RPI: 24) (13-6,
5-3 Pac-12) – When a National Player of the Year graduates (2015 OH Samantha
Bricio), it leaves behind a pretty large space for someone else to fill. Then, star
setter Baylee Johnson, one of the best freshmen in the conference last year,
leaves the team for personal reasons just a couple of weeks before the start of
the season. I had almost no idea what USC was going to look like going into the
year. Early on, as one could probably expect, there were plenty of growing
pains: getting swept on the first non-conf. tourney of the year is not exactly
an auspicious start. But highly-touted freshman OH Khalia Lanier has stepped in
admirably as the #1 hitter in their offense, and what could have been a
rebuilding year is instead turning into a solid season.
In, for now:
Arizona (RPI: 31)
(13-7, 5-3 Pac-12)
Work to do:
Colorado (RPI: 35)
(11-7, 3-5 Pac-12)
Big 12 Conference
One of the few conferences that looks pretty similar to last
year: it’s still the Longhorns and Jayhawks show. But Texas has shown
vulnerability early in conference play. Through 6 matches, Texas has yet to
sweep anyone, and has been taken to 5 sets twice, including once in Austin by
Iowa State. Until somebody actually manages to beat Texas or Kansas (besides
each other), it’s still clear those two are on a different level. But the gap
has shrunk a bit.
Near-locks:
Texas (RPI: 2) (14-2,
6-0 Big 12)
Kansas (RPI: 26)
(17-2, 6-1 Big 12)
Should be in:
Kansas State (RPI: 15)
(15-5, 4-3 Big 12)
In, for now:
Baylor (RPI: 39)
(16-7, 4-2 Big 12) – One of a number of teams that has seen its stock rise
in large part due to the sudden increase in value of one of its non-conference
wins; beating Washington State at the end of non-conference play was originally
just a solid win. That same WSU team then upset three top 10 (at the time of
match) squads in a row, two on the road (@Wash, @UCLA, vs. Stan). That,
combined with wins in the Big 12 against fellow bubble-mates Kansas State and
TCU, has the Bears trending up.
TCU (RPI: 28) (10-7,
3-4 Big 12)
Work to do:
Iowa State (RPI: 49) (10-8,
2-4 Big 12)
Atlantic Coast
Conference
Through non-conference play, only North Carolina and Florida
State were able to separate themselves from the pack as far as tourney chances.
But considering the lackluster NC performance, the teams that are winning more
than expected in conference play are the teams that came in as fringe bubble
teams, so the number of tourney hopefuls is longer than one might expect for a
conference that Massey Ratings pegs as only the 8th-best conference
in the country, behind both the Mountain West and the Big West.
Near-locks:
North Carolina (RPI:
5) (16-2, 8-0 ACC)
Should be in:
Florida State (RPI:
23) (14-3, 7-1 ACC)
In, for now:
Notre Dame (RPI: 36)
(16-4, 7-1 ACC) – As a Washington Husky volleyball fan, it was hard to take,
and more than a bit surprising, when Jim McLaughlin left UW a couple of years
ago to coach the Fighting Irish. The pedigree of McLaughlin combined with Notre
Dame being a national name in recruiting (not as much in volleyball, but it the
name still carries weight) was clearly going to bring top-tier talent to South
Bend. But the immediate impact has been impressive. A Notre Dame team that had
really struggled before McLaughlin arrived took only one transition year (2015)
to gel, and is now a force in the ACC. Good service has been key: ND has 80
(yes, eighty!) more aces than their opponents (135-55) and 10 fewer service
errors than the opposition despite almost 200 more total serves.
Pittsburgh (RPI: 38)
(15-6, 5-3 ACC)
Work to do:
Georgia Tech (RPI: 43)
(15-5, 6-2 ACC)
Southeastern
Conference:
Two of the biggest disappointments for the SEC in
non-conference play are the same two teams that are undefeated to this point
inside the SEC: Kentucky and Missouri. South Carolina’s undefeated start, which
was always a little bit suspect due to the 300+ non-conference SOS (yuck), has
unfortunately fallen as the Gamecocks have gone 2-5 in the SEC. But they
definitely could work their way onto this list.
Near-locks:
Florida (RPI: 8)
(16-2, 6-1 SEC)
Should be in:
Kentucky (RPI: 18)
(15-4, 8-0 SEC)
Missouri (RPI: 22)
(16-3, 7-0 SEC) – The Tigers don’t have any marquee wins on their resume at
this point (best two are beating Pitt at a neutral site and winning a 5-setter
at Alabama), but they also have only three losses, and they are all against
good teams: BYU, Utah, and a dangerous Miami (OH) Redhawks squad (RPI: 48). The
next week and a half will show us a lot more, as Mizzou hosts LSU and
bubble-mate Texas A&M, and then travels to Lexington with the top spot in
the SEC on the line against Kentucky.
In, for now:
Texas A&M (RPI:
37) (11-7, 5-2 SEC)
Work to do:
Alabama (RPI: 42)
(14-6, 3-4 SEC)
West Coast
Conference
A very good start to the year for the WCC, led by the
red-hot University of San Diego. The Toreros are clobbering everybody right
now, which is unfortunate for the bubble teams in the conference. One very
strange team here: Santa Clara. Through the first three weeks, the Santa Clara
Broncos were 9-0, including wins at USC and at Louisville. They were inside the
top 20 in the AVCA poll. But since then, SCU is just 3-8. Although not good for
the conference to have a team freefalling, there is one upside: beating the
Broncos (12-8, RPI: 87) still helps your resume because of their hot start.
Near-locks:
San Diego (RPI: 6)
(17-2, 8-0 WCC) – The only thing stopping this team from being locked is
the fact that there are just too many potential landmine losses left in their
schedule. Half of their 10 remaining matches are against teams with an RPI of
115 or worse. Their ruthlessly efficient offense leads the NCAA in kills per
set. Barring some sort of historic meltdown, this team will not only be playing
into December, but quite possibly deep into it.
Should be in:
Brigham Young (RPI:
13) (17-3, 6-2 WCC)
Work to do:
Loyola Marymount (RPI:
54) (14-6, 5-3 WCC)
Pacific (RPI: 56)
(11-9, 5-3 WCC)
At-Large
possibilities from smaller conferences:
Should be in:
UNLV (RPI: 17) (18-2,
7-1 Mountain West)
Creighton (RPI: 27)
(14-6, 8-0 Big East) – A 6-loss team from a less-than-stellar conference
doesn’t really strike you as that impressive, but Creighton played an extremely
tough non-conference schedule. Their losses came to: Wichita State, USC,
Kentucky, Kansas, Kansas State, and Nebraska. The worst of those teams is
Wichita State, which is on the same list as Creighton. But since moving into
Big East play, the Blue Jays have lost a total of two sets. This is the same
team that won a set on Nebraska’s home floor (and nearly won two). They’re
good.
In, for now:
Hawaii (RPI: 33)
(15-5, 7-1 Big West)
Western Kentucky (RPI:
20) (20-2, 7-0 C-USA)
Dayton (RPI: 34)
(20-1, 7-0 Atlantic 10) – I kind of feel bad for teams like Dayton. Most
likely, this team will win the Atlantic 10 conference tournament, and that
would be good, because they deserve to be in the NCAA tournament. But if they
somehow lose in the conference tournament, the only thing they have to show the
committee is wins. Lots of wins. But they have such a weak schedule, and one of
the few bubble-or-better teams they played in non-conference was Loyola
Marymount. There are two problems with that: a) that’s the one game they lost,
and b) Loyola Marymount has underwhelmed since upsetting Dayton. If they lose
one game the rest of the season, I just hope it’s not during the conference
tournament.
Marquette (RPI: 30)
(17-4, 7-2 Big East)
Work to do:
Colorado State (RPI:
41) (13-6, 8-0 Mountain West)
Wichita State (RPI:
32) (15-5, 8-1 Missouri Valley)
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