NCAA Automatic Bid Watch (11/13/17) - by Ed Strong (twitter.com/DawgoneCrazy)

Author's note: Thanks for reading! If you have any questions/comments about this or any other post I make, ask me on Twitter - I'm on very frequently, either on my main account (@DawgoneCrazy) or my fan-run VB scores account (@NCAAVBscores). I'd love to hear feedback and generate more interest in NCAA women's volleyball.

There are 64 teams that get to go to the NCAA Women’s Volleyball Championship. 32 of them are referred to as “automatic qualifiers” who gained access to the tournament by winning their conference’s automatic bid – either winning the conference tournament, or for conferences without a conference tournament, winning the regular season title. The remaining 32 are “at-large” bids, going to the most qualified teams left after all 32 conference champions are already taken.
If you’re a fan of a team that is on the bubble, it is in your best interest for the best teams to win their conferences, rather than losing to a lesser foe in the conference tournament. The reasoning for this is that it removes a team from the pool of at-large teams available for those 32 spots. If your rooting interest is somewhere in this list, listen up (note: this is not an exhaustive list of potential bubble teams, just a general guide):
  • ·         Alabama
  • ·         Arkansas
  • ·         Auburn
  • ·         College of Charleston
  • ·         Dayton
  • ·         Florida State
  • ·         Georgia
  • ·         Hawaii
  • ·         Iowa
  • ·         LSU
  • ·         Maryland
  • ·         Michigan
  • ·         Missouri
  • ·         Missouri State
  • ·         NC State
  • ·         North Carolina
  • ·         North Texas
  • ·         Northern Iowa
  • ·         Notre Dame
  • ·         Ohio State
  • ·         VCU
  • ·         Washington State

Bolded teams indicate teams that fully control their own destiny in a conference tournament, but are also a potential at-large team if they fail to win the conference tournament.
The Italicized team (hi, NC State!) indicates a team that fully controls their own destiny due to conference tiebreaker rules: if NC State wins out, they would have to defeat one of the two teams they’re tied with (Louisville) and would at worst finish in a two-way tie for first with Pittsburgh. The only meeting between the Wolfpack and the Panthers this season was won by NC State, so that means if NC State wins out, they win the ACC auto bid. But if they go 3-1 or worse, they may join these teams in a quest for an at-large spot.

Conference Rundown

Here, I split the 32 conferences into 5 groups based on their effect on the rest of the field.

Group A: Automatic bids already clinched (2 conferences):
  • Colorado State (25-3, 15-1 Mountain West – RPI 31): Still has two games left in the regular season, but with a four-game lead over second-place Wyoming, the Rams actually have had this bid clinched for over a week now.
  • Cal Poly (24-2, 14-0 Big West – RPI 19): The Mustangs have secured their first NCAA appearance since 2007 by virtue of a two-game lead with two left, having swept second-place Hawaii.

Group B: Power conferences without a conference tournament where the automatic bid has not been determined, but any/all of the teams still in contention for a title will make the tournament as an at-large team anyway (6 conferences):
  • Pac-12: Current leader is Stanford (22-3, 15-1 Pac-12 – RPI 7); USC (RPI 10) and Washington (RPI 8) are still alive.
  • Big Ten: Current co-leaders are Penn State (25-1, 15-1 Big Ten – RPI 1) and Nebraska (22-4, 15-1 Big Ten – RPI 6); Minnesota (RPI 4) and Michigan State (RPI 11) are still alive.
  • Big 12: Current leader is Texas (21-2, 13-0 Big 12 – RPI 5); Kansas (RPI 12) and Baylor (RPI 17) are still alive.
  • SEC: Current leader is Florida (22-1, 14-1 SEC – RPI 2); Kentucky (RPI 3) is very much in the mix. Missouri (RPI 35) is technically still alive, but the only way Missouri can even share a title would have to include an upset of Florida, so in that scenario their RPI would get up into the 20’s at least.
  • WCC: Current co-leaders are Brigham Young (25-2, 14-1 WCC – RPI 20) and San Diego (21-4, 14-1 WCC – RPI 23); everyone else has been eliminated.
  • ACC: Currently a three-way tie atop the conference with Pittsburgh (21-6, 14-2 ACC – RPI 26), Louisville (20-6, 14-2 ACC – RPI 25), and North Carolina State (19-8, 14-2 ACC – RPI 36). Pittsburgh and Louisville are basically in. NC State isn’t a lock, but if they win at least the 3 or 4 games necessary to potentially be an automatic bid, they would be. Miami-Florida (RPI 28) and North Carolina (RPI 55) are technically still alive, but highly unlikely.

Group C: The remaining conferences without a conference tournament that do not fit into category A or B (2 conferences):
  • Ivy League: Princeton (17-7, 10-4 Ivy – RPI 63) and Yale (16-7, 10-4 Ivy – RPI 77) are tied for the regular season championship. There will be a one-game playoff hosted by Yale next weekend – winner to NCAA tournament, loser stays home.
  • American Athletic: Current leader is Wichita State (24-3, 16-0 AAC – RPI 16); only other team still alive is SMU (RPI 65). Shockers are clearly a lock for the tournament, while SMU is a longshot as an at-large. The Mustangs would have to make up a 3-game deficit with just 4 to go, although the Shockers and Mustangs do play each other next weekend. Those rooting for bubble teams elsewhere want the Shockers to finish SMU off as soon as possible.

Group D: “One-bid leagues” – Conferences with a conference tournament, but none of the teams, even the current leader, would remain within reasonable distance of an at-large bid after suffering a loss in the conference tournament (17 conferences):
  • America East: hosted by #1 seed Albany (11-13, 11-1 AE – RPI 160)
  • Atlantic Sun (A-Sun): #1 seed is Kennesaw State (19-4, 13-1 A-Sun – RPI 54); hosted by 4th-seeded Lipscomb
  • Big Sky: hosted by #1 seed Sacramento State (24-8, 15-1 Big Sky – RPI 87)
  • Big South: #1 seed is High Point (23-6, 16-0 Big South – RPI 44); hosted by 2nd-seeded Radford
  • Horizon League: hosted by #1 seed Cleveland State (20-7, 13-3 Horizon – RPI 75)
  • Metro Atlantic (MAAC): hosted by #1 seed Fairfield (23-6, 18-0 MAAC – RPI 157)
  • Mid-American (MAC): hosted by #1 seed Miami-Ohio (21-8, 13-3 MAC – RPI 67)
  • Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC): hosted by #1 seed Maryland-Eastern Shore (26-7, 11-0 MEAC – RPI 222)
  • Northeast (NEC): hosted by #1 seed LIU-Brooklyn (18-9, 11-3 NEC – RPI 130)
  • Ohio Valley (OVC): hosted by #1 seed Austin Peay (27-5, 14-2 OVC – RPI 59)
  • Patriot League: hosted by #1 seed American (24-7, 15-1 Patriot – RPI 71)
  • Southern Conference (SoCon): #1 seed is Furman (20-9, 14-2 SoCon – RPI 103); hosted by 7th-seeded Western Carolina
  • Southland: #1 seed is Stephen F. Austin (26-6, 14-2 Southland – RPI 91); hosted by 3rd-seeded Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
  • Southwestern Athletic (SWAC): top seed is Alabama State (25-10, 18-0 SWAC – RPI 205); hosted by 8th-seeded Jackson State
  • Summit League: hosted by #1 seed Denver (21-5, 12-2 Summit – RPI 60)
  • Sun Belt: #1 seed is Coastal Carolina (18-7, 15-1 Sun Belt – RPI 89); hosted by 4th-seeded Arkansas State
  • Western Athletic (WAC): #1 seed is New Mexico State (21-7, 12-2 WAC – RPI 111); hosted by 2nd-seeded UT-Rio Grande Valley

And finally, Group E, the volatile group you want to pay attention to: Conference tournaments where at one or more teams have some realistic chance of an at-large bid, but also at least one team that clearly is not in the at-large discussion (5 conferences):

Important note: The good/bad scenarios do not mean I am rooting for or against your team. These distinctions are purely relative to bubble teams elsewhere. I just mean them as references to what good and bad results would be to a team sitting right on the bubble.

      Atlantic 10 (A-10): Regular season winner and top seed is VCU (28-2, 14-0 A-10 – RPI 42). VCU is on a national-best 25 game winning streak, but 2nd-place Dayton (22-7, 13-1 A-10 – RPI 53) gave them the toughest fight they’ve had in a long time a week ago. The Rams would not be a lock if they failed to win the A-10 tourney, but if the loss came to Dayton in the championship, they would be okay. The Flyers are a longshot for an at-large bid, but are clearly capable of upsetting VCU.
Good: VCU wins the tourney and Dayton gets upset early, or alternatively, VCU gets upset early and Dayton wins would probably work, too. Not too picky, unless it’s the bad scenario.
Bad: Dayton wins a competitive final against VCU. This wouldn’t assure the Rams of getting in, but it definitely creates another good at-large candidate.

      Big East: With a week to go in the regular season, the exact field for this four-team tournament has not been determined yet, but we do know two things: Creighton (22-5, 15-1 Big East – RPI 9) will be the #1 seed, and Marquette (20-8, 14-3 Big East – RPI 30) will be the #2 seed and host. Some combination of Butler, Seton Hall, and Villanova will round out the field.
     Good: Creighton or Marquette wins the tournament. Pretty simple here; the Bluejays are a complete lock, and the Golden Eagles are a lock barring a total meltdown.
Bad: Anyone else wins the tournament. That would most likely create a three-bid league, rather than just two.

·       Colonial Athletic (CAA): #1 seed is College of Charleston (26-4, 15-1 CAA – RPI 52); hosted by 3rd-seeded James Madison. The C of C Cougars are really the only at-large threat here, but what makes this group notable is that there are multiple teams capable of potentially beating Charleston that would not be a major RPI hit if the Cougars lost to them: 2nd-seeded Towson (26-4, 12-4 CAA – RPI 62) and #3 James Madison (20-5, 11-5 CAA – RPI 61) both went undefeated in non-conference play and are significant competition, not to mention #4 Northeastern and #5 Hofstra are solid as well. Could be the most well-rounded conference tournament out there.
Good: College of Charleston either wins the conference tournament or loses in the first round. Again, basically just avoiding the bad scenario.
Bad: C of C makes the final, but loses the championship to either Towson or JMU. Like with VCU in the A-10, Charleston wouldn’t be definitively in, but they’d very much be in the mix.

·       Conference USA (C-USA): #1 seed is North Texas (26-2, 13-1 C-USA – RPI 48); hosted by 2nd-seeded Western Kentucky. Although the Mean Green are the top seed here by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker earned in a highly entertaining match last Thursday, the host Hilltoppers (27-3, 13-1 C-USA – RPI 32) are the main threat here. The only team I can realistically envision winning the tournament besides either UNT or WKU is 3rd-seeded Rice, and even that seems like a bit of a stretch.
Good: Western Kentucky wins the tournament and North Texas gets upset before the final.
Bad: Anybody but WKU winning the tournament ensures a two-bid league, and a three-bid league might even be possible if Rice beat North Texas after upsetting WKU in the semis.



·       Missouri Valley (MVC): Like the Big East, the 6-team MVC tournament field isn’t completely set at this point with a week still to go. What we do know is this: the #1 seed is Missouri State (24-5, 16-0 MVC – RPI 41), the #2 seed is Northern Iowa (24-7, 14-3 MVC – RPI 50) and both Drake and Illinois State are in as either 3 or 4, with 3rd- or 4th-seeded Illinois State hosting the tournament. Missouri State is in good shape as long as they don’t lose to somebody besides Northern Iowa. UNI’s resume is about the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen, and I have no idea what the committee is going to do with it. The Panthers have a set of wins that makes them look like a top-10 team: neutral-site wins over Nebraska (RPI 6) and USC (RPI 10) and a true road win at Iowa State (RPI 16). On the flip side, the Panthers also have three losses to teams outside of the top 95 (at Illinois State, vs Kansas State, and at UMKC), and the loss at UMKC (RPI 262) is the worst loss of anyone in the top 60 BY FAR. There’s a reasonable argument that you can make that UNI is ahead of Missouri State and safely into the tournament, and there’s a reasonable argument that Northern Iowa’s only chance is to win the conference tournament.
Good: Missouri State wins the tournament and Northern Iowa loses quickly. This eliminates any chance at three bids and greatly reduces the chance for two.
Bad: Northern Iowa over MSU in the final ensures a two-bid league, or alternatively a third team (Drake/Illinois State, probably) winning over UNI might make this a three-bid league, but could also create a one-bid league. The Missouri Valley is the ultimate wild card.

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