Small Conference Power Rankings - Week 5

The idea for this ranking is an extension of VolleyballMag's Mid-Major poll, but digging further. Teams like BYU, Northern Iowa, and Colorado State don't recruit like small-conference teams, so why should they be ranked with them?

For the Small Conference 15, teams from the top 11 conferences in the country are ineligible - or in other words, only teams that are on page 2 of my schedule spreadsheet are allowed. That means no teams from any of:
  • Pac-12
  • Big Ten
  • Big 12
  • SEC
  • West Coast
  • ACC
  • Big West
  • American Athletic
  • Mountain West
  • Missouri Valley
  • Big East
The rankings are initially sorted based on the computer power ratings produced by MasseyRatings. I then a series of small adjustments based on an assortment of other things, including the unofficial RPI.

Games listed under "wins" and "losses" are just the most notable results from that team: wins against teams of approximately equal strength or better, and losses against teams of approximately equal strength or worse. Each team will have at least have their best win and worst loss listed. Significant upsets are underlined. Records are current through Sunday, 9/23.
  1. Dayton (11-4, 2-0 Atlantic 10)Wins: (RV) Ohio State (H), Tennessee (H), (sc 8) Kennesaw State (N), (sc 9) Charleston (N)
    Losses: Kansas (A)
  2. Denver (13-1, 2-0 Summit)
    Wins: (RV) Saint Mary's (N), UC Irvine (N)
    Loss: #25 Utah (A)
  3. East Tennessee State (12-3, 1-0 Southern)
    Wins: #22 Washington State (N), Duke (A), Tennessee (H)
    Losses: (sc 5) Western Kentucky (A), South Carolina (A)

  4. Texas State (11-5, 2-0 Sun Belt)
    Wins: (sc 7) Rice (A), Arizona State (A), (sc 11) James Madison (H)
    Losses: LSU (N)
  5. Western Kentucky (11-5, 2-0 Conference USA)
    Wins: (sc 3) ETSU (H), Notre Dame (H), Cincinnati (H), (sc 14) Miami-Ohio (H)
    Losses: (sc 9) Charleston (A)
  6. Stephen F. Austin (14-2, 1-0 Southland)
    Wins: Wichita State (N), (sc 7) Rice (H)
    Losses: Northwestern (N), (sc 8) Princeton (N)
  7. Rice (10-4, 1-0 Conference USA)
    Wins: South Carolina (H), (sc 13) Austin Peay (H), (sc 15) UTRGV (N)
    Losses: (sc 6) S.F. Austin (A), (sc 4) Texas State (H)
  8. Princeton (8-4, 1-0 Ivy League)
    Wins: (sc 6) S.F. Austin (N), Maryland (N), Northwestern (N)
    Losses: Temple (A), Long Beach State (N)
  9. College of Charleston (10-5, 2-0 Colonial)
    Wins: (sc 5) Western Kentucky (H), Missouri State (H)
    Losses: (sc 1) Dayton (N), Kansas (N)
  10. Kennesaw State (11-4, 2-0 Atlantic Sun)
    Wins: Clemson (H), Loyola-Chicago (N)
    Losses: Auburn (H), (sc 1) Dayton (N)
  11. James Madison (11-3, 3-0 Colonial)
    Wins: (RV) Missouri (H)
    Losses: VCU (A), (sc 4) Texas State (A)
  12. New Mexico State (10-5, 0-2 Western Athletic)
    Wins: #24 Arizona (H)
    Losses: Cal Baptist (A), Cal State Bakersfield (A), FGCU (N)
  13. Austin Peay (12-2, 2-0 Ohio Valley)
    Wins: Ole Miss (N), UMKC (A)
    Losses: Northern Kentucky (N), (sc 7) Rice (A)
  14. Miami-Ohio (10-4, 2-0 Mid-American)
    Wins: Cincinnati (H), Oakland (H)
    Losses: UC Santa Barbara (H), (sc 5) Western Kentucky (A)
  15. UTRGV (10-6, 1-1 Western Athletic)
    Wins: #21 Baylor (A), Cal Baptist (A)
    Losses: Houston Baptist (A), (sc 7) Rice (N)
Also considered (in alphabetical order):
  • Cal Baptist (9-4, 1-1 Western Athletic)
  • Cal State Bakersfield (8-6, 2-0 Western Athletic)
  • Florida Atlantic (10-3, 1-0 Conference USA)
  • Florida Gulf Coast (9-5, 2-0 Atlantic Sun)
  • Lipscomb (7-7, 2-0 Atlantic Sun)
  • Northern Arizona (9-6, 1-1 Big Sky)
  • Northern Kentucky (10-3, 2-0 Horizon)
  • Radford (10-2, 2-0 Big South)
  • UTSA (10-4, 2-0 Conference USA)
  • VCU (7-7, 2-0 Atlantic 10)
A few thoughts:

  • Pretty much the only way to get the attention of the AVCA poll as a small conference team is by upsetting a ranked opponent, so it makes some sense that ETSU is the only team on this list receiving significant top-25 attention. With that said, it's pretty disappointing not to see Dayton anywhere on the poll. The Flyers have lost 4 times, but all of them have been to big-time opponents (Pittsburgh, Washington, Kentucky, and Kansas). UD took #13 UW to a 17-15 fifth set. Wins over Ohio State and Tennessee should mean more to the voters than they apparently do.
  • Denver easily could be undefeated, but because they didn't finish the upset of the Utes in a wild match on opening weekend, it's going to be pretty hard to move up. North Dakota's move from the Big Sky to the Summit League looked like it would bolster the conference considerably, but UND has disappointed mightily this season at just 9-8, removing two potential marquee games from DU's schedule. The win over Saint Mary's carries surprisingly more weight than expected, but even so, the non-conference schedule for the Pioneers was pretty weak.
 Games to watch in week 6:
  • MAC: Miami-Ohio at Bowling Green (Thu)
  • Horizon: Northern Kentucky at Cleveland State (Fri)
  • Southern: Samford at ETSU (Fri)
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas State at Texas State (Sat)
  • Ivy: Yale at Princeton (Sat)
  • Big South: High Point at Radford (Sat)
  • C-USA: Rice at Western Kentucky (Sun)
  • A-10: VCU at Dayton (Sun)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2018 #NCAAVB tourney predictions

A Q&A collaboration between three volleyball addicts: Myself, @DawgoneCrazy (primary interest: Washington and the Pac-12) @cheesetrader1 (Wisconsin and the Big Ten) @vballfreak808 (Hawaii and the West Coast in general: Pac-12, WCC, Big West) Toughest pod? Cheese: Orlando is clearly brutal. Pullman isn't easy either, particularly if you're a hitter: Washington State, Tennessee, and Colorado State all have really good blocking. 808: The Stanford subregional is tougher than people may expect, with LMU and Duke each taking down a top 10 opponent this season. Stanford is the top seed but scrappy teams have caused trouble for the Cardinal before. Dawg: Besides Orlando, Lexington really stands out to me. Kentucky has lost just once since opening weekend, and had a really long stretch without dropping a set in SEC play. Purdue hasn't lost a single match to a team outside of the top 20 all year, but that will be put to the test right off the bat with ETSU, who holds
Read more
With just a week and a half until Selection Sunday, a overview of where teams are relative to the cut line for NCAA at-large bids. Records and ( unofficial ) RPI current through Wednesday, 11/20. Questions/Comments? Tweet me @NCAAVBscores. Lock: I feel 100% confident this team will make the NCAA tournament even if they were to lose every remaining match. Just avoid disaster: Pretty self-explanatory, I think. It varies what exactly that means, though. For teams in power conference, this means just don't lose out, but for a few teams that are large favorites multiple times (such as Cal Poly and UCSB), it means just don't suffer a major upset. Right side of the bubble: If the season ended now, I would have this team in, but they're far from safe. Wrong side of the bubble: If the season ended now, I would have this team out, but getting there is quite reasonable. Need wins: An uphill climb to a bid. Primarily used for teams with a tough schedule remaining -w
Read more

Fall 2020 #NCAAVB rankings: Week 2

Notes: Only teams that have played at least one match already will be listed here. That means a couple of things: top teams in conferences not playing fall seasons at all won't be listed; it doesn't mean I think they're worse than teams listed here (think Pac-12 & Big Ten at least for now, plus teams like Hawaii, Creighton, Marquette and Colorado State). On a similar note, teams playing a fall schedule that starts late won't be ranked until they play their first game (mostly referring to SEC; also applies to the Big 12, ACC and about half of Sun Belt to a lesser extent). A side effect of doing the rankings this way is that teams playing early will later drop significantly (if not out of rankings entirely) through no fault of their own, simply because more poerful teams open their seasons. While less than ideal, I feel this is better than the alternative (attempting to rank every team that will play in fall at some point) for a few reasons: 1) It focuses the attentio
Read more