#NCAAVB Bracketology 2018

Final 2018 Bracketology
By Ed Strong

Automatic bids are italicized. Top team in each group is host; bottom team is the 2-seed and wears home jerseys in first round.

Palo Alto, CA
#1 Stanford (28-1, 20-0 Pac-12)
Alabama State (23-17, 16-2 SWAC)
Denver (27-2, 15-0 Summit)
Pepperdine (21-8, 14-4 WCC)

Milwaukee, WI
#16 Marquette (26-6, 15-2 Big East)
Eastern Michigan (21-13, 9-7 MAC)
Yale (19-4, 13-1 Ivy)
Purdue (23-8, 12-8 Big Ten)

State College, PA
#9 Penn State (23-7, 14-6 Big Ten)
Navy (23-8, 13-3 Patriot)
Syracuse (18-8, 14-4 ACC)
Washington (18-12, 10-10 Pac-12)

Lexington, KY
#8 Kentucky (24-4, 18-0 SEC)
Murray State (22-9, 13-3 OVC)
East Tennessee State (28-6, 15-1 SoCon)
Florida State (19-9, 15-3 ACC)

Madison, WI
#5 Wisconsin (22-6, 15-5 Big Ten)
Green Bay (20-10, 13-3 Horizon)
Louisville (21-8, 14-4 ACC)
Illinois State 25-7, 16-2 MVC)

Los Angeles, CA
#12 USC (21-10, 13-7 Pac-12)
Northern Arizona (26-8, 15-3 Big Sky)
Stephen F. Austin (32-2, 16-0 Southland)
Cal Poly (25-2, 15-1 Big West)

Orlando, FL
#13 UCF (27-3, 18-0 American)
Florida Gulf Coast (26-6, 15-1 A-Sun)
Duke (16-11, 10-8 ACC)
Florida (24-6, 15-3 SEC)

Austin, TX
#4 Texas (20-4, 15-1 Big 12)
Iona (20-7, 16-2 MAAC)
Rice (24-6, 12-2 C-USA)
Texas State (26-6, 15-1 Sun Belt)

Champaign, IL
#3 Illinois (28-3, 17-3 Big Ten)
Howard (20-10, 9-1 MEAC)
Dayton (23-7, 12-2 A-10)
Cincinnati (25-7, 15-3 American)

Pullman, WA
#14 Washington State (21-9, 12-8 Pac-12)
High Point (21-9, 14-2 Big South)
Hawaii (18-8, 14-2 Big West)
Tennessee (25-5, 16-2 SEC)

Pittsburgh, PA
#11 Pittsburgh (29-1, 17-1 ACC)
Hofstra (25-7, 13-3 CAA) Colorado (18-13, 10-10 Pac-12)
Michigan (22-9, 11-9 Big Ten)

Provo, UT
#6 BYU (27-1, 17-1 WCC)
Stony Brook (21-8, 12-0 America East)
Colorado State (23-7, 15-3 Mountain West) Utah (18-13, 10-10 Pac-12)

Lincoln, NE
#7 Nebraska (24-6, 15-5 Big Ten)
Samford (19-14, 11-5 SoCon)
Kansas (15-12, 8-8 Big 12)
Missouri (23-7, 13-5 SEC)

Omaha, NE
#10 Creighton (28-4, 18-0 Big East)
South Dakota (21-9, 13-3 Summit)
Kansas State (15-12, 5-11 Big 12)
Northern Iowa (24-9, 16-2 MVC)

Eugene, OR
#15 Oregon (20-10, 13-7 Pac-12)
New Mexico State (24-7, 12-4 WAC)
Saint Mary's (19-9, 11-7 WCC)
Baylor (19-8, 11-5 Big 12)

Minneapolis, MN
#2 Minnesota (25-3, 19-1 Big Ten)
Bryant (22-12, 10-4 NEC)
Arizona (22-10, 11-9 Pac-12)
South Carolina (19-9, 10-8 SEC)

Last six in:
Colorado
Duke
Kansas
Hawaii
Saint Mary's
Kansas State

First six out:
San Diego (16-12, 13-5 WCC)
Maryland (18-14, 9-11 Big Ten)
Iowa State (16-13, 9-7 Big 12)
Princeton (19-6, 12-2 Ivy)
Loyola Marymount (20-9, 10-8 WCC)
Oklahoma (17-11, 9-7 Big 12)

Notes:

I'm quite confident in the first 14 hosts at least being somewhere in the top 16. Of the conglomerate of teams from 15 to 23 in the RPI after WSU, Oregon's resume looks to be the strongest to me: 10 top-50 wins, 4 top-25 wins, elite wins vs Minnesota (neutral) and USC (road), and no debilitating losses.

Host #16 is a mess. The committee could go with any of a handful of teams: Marquette, Northern Iowa, Florida, Purdue, or Cal Poly. My confidence in picking Marquette is pretty low.

Cal Poly probably isn't hosting, because the Big West isn't what it used to be, so it drags down their RPI. But the Mustangs are an extremely dangerous 2nd-round opponent for a Pac-12 foe, likely USC.

My gut wants me to say Kansas State isn't getting in, at just 5-11 in the Big 12. But the 5-4 mark vs the RPI top 50 looks a lot better than most bubble teams can say.

For basically the same reason, I have the committee breaking Maryland's heart...again. Terps were the first team out of the dance last year, and were picked to finish 13th in the Big Ten this year with Steve Aird bolting for Indiana and multiple transfers out. New head coach Adam Hughes has to be recognized as one of the national candidates for coach of the year, but the part of the resume I can't look past: 1-11 vs the RPI top 50. Second-best win is either Northwestern or Indiana.

Clarification questions? Comments? Think I'm nuts and I have a personal grudge against your team? Hit me up on Twitter: personal is @DawgoneCrazy; VB-only account is @NCAAVBscores.

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