2018 #NCAAVB tourney predictions

With just a week and a half until Selection Sunday, a overview of where teams are relative to the cut line for NCAA at-large bids.

Records and (unofficial) RPI current through Wednesday, 11/20.

Questions/Comments? Tweet me @NCAAVBscores.

Lock: I feel 100% confident this team will make the NCAA tournament even if they were to lose every remaining match.

Just avoid disaster: Pretty self-explanatory, I think. It varies what exactly that means, though. For teams in power conference, this means just don't lose out, but for a few teams that are large favorites multiple times (such as Cal Poly and UCSB), it means just don't suffer a major upset.

Right side of the bubble: If the season ended now, I would have this team in, but they're far from safe.

Wrong side of the bubble: If the season ended now, I would have this team out, but getting there is quite reasonable.

Need wins: An uphill climb to a bid. Primarily used for teams with a tough schedule remaining -winning out seems unlikely, but if the team manages to do it, they shouldn't need help elsewhere.

Need wins and help: A major longshot. Even with a perfect record from here out, it seems unlikely this team would get to the level of current bubble teams, so chaos elsewhere is probably necessary in addition to winning out.

Pac-12

Locks (4): Stanford (4), Washington (9), Utah (16), USC (18)

Just avoid disaster (3): UCLA (21), California (39), Washington State (42)

Wrong side of the bubble (1): Arizona State (52)

UCLA (14-11, 9-7 Pac-12; RPI 21)

It may seem odd that UCLA is in the same category as Cal and Wazzu, but bear with me here. The Bruins are almost surely in, but there’s a small problem. With four games left to go, their record is just 14-11, even if their brutal schedule makes that look completely reasonable. A lock means I believe the team would absolutely make the tournament even if they lose all remaining games, but teams must be at .500 to be eligible for selection. 15-11 USC was in a similar situation, but is now assured of at least a .500 finish which should be plenty with a top-5 schedule. Bruins will be almost assuredly be fine, but not going to earn a lock until they get one more win (with struggling Oregon and OSU coming to LA this weekend, that’s likely the ticket).

California (20-6, 10-6 Pac-12; RPI 39)

Despite dropping five of their last eight with an upset loss to Oregon, Cal still appears to be just fine. Their non-conference schedule was not good overall, but it did offer a couple of meaningful wins (Oklahoma, North Carolina) including one of the most impressive non-conference wins any team has in the country: a 3-1 win at Colorado State, the Rams only loss this season. Combined with a hot 7-1 start in conference, the Golden Bears are still in good shape as far as making the field. The Bears visit Colorado on Friday – a win there and they’re a lock. The last three matches for Cal are quite possibly the three toughest matches possible in the Pac-12: at Utah, at Washington, at Stanford. But interestingly, that could actually be in Cal’s favor – even an 0-4 finish would only include one loss that actually damages their RPI, so unless some other bubble teams make runs or some heavy favorites in conference tournaments go down, the Bears would probably still be safe.

Washington State (22-6, 11-5 Pac-12; RPI 42)

The Cougars are a bit more interesting. Based simply on the fact that they’ve gone 11-5 in the #1 RPI conference, they should be a solid lock. But WSU’s non-conference schedule looked bad at first and has only gotten worse as the loss to Iowa has gotten worse and worse. Half of the Cougars’ 12 non-conference games were against teams outside of the RPI top 200, which just kills their SOS, and their only win against a top-100 team is at fringe bubble team JMU (56). Ten Pac-12 members are in the top 50 in overall SOS: only Cal (134) and WSU (167) are outside of the top 50 in overall SOS, and at least the Golden Bears have one of the best non-conference wins available.

That being said, WSU should be fine. Their 4-3 record against the top 25 is by far the best for a bubble team and it’s extremely hard to imagine a team with so many marquee wins (Washington, at Utah, USC twice) getting left out. Like the Bruins, the plan is just not to finish 0-4. But with Stanford and Washington waiting in the final week, the Cougs better plan to get at least one this week in the desert first.

Arizona State (15-12, 7-9 Pac-12; RPI 52)

Ah, the first true bubble team. The Sun Devils have pretty much beaten the teams a bubble team should beat and lost to the teams a bubble team should lose to, with 0-7 and 1-11 marks against the top-25 and top-50 respectively, but no bad losses either. The one top-50 win is worth noting, though, as it was on the road against a very good WSU team that RPI grossly underrates at 42. With a pretty tough slate remaining and pretty much right on the bubble, a 2-2 finish is probably good enough for a bid. As long as the Devils can take care of archrival Arizona on the road in the season finale, that means ASU needs to pick up one upset and they have three chances to get it, all coming in Tempe: Washington State, Washington, USC.

Big Ten

Locks (6): Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Michigan

Right side of the bubble (2): Illinois, Ohio State

Illinois (13-12, 8-8 Big Ten; RPI 44)

How is this team still on the bubble? I mean, don’t get me wrong, they’re clearly not as good as last year (never did understand the preseason #6 ranking) and they’ve played a really tough schedule, but they should not be sitting just one game over .500 with four to go. The marquee wins are there, as the Illini beat Marquette to snap their four-game losing streak during non-conference and won their only meeting with the Boilermakers (in West Lafayette, no less), although losses to Illinois State (road) and Colorado (neutral) do hurt. The bigger key here: unlike their 8-8 mark in Big Ten play so far, treading water isn’t going to work anymore, as Illinois has about as soft of a final two weeks as you can find given the overall strength of the Big Ten: at Maryland, at Ohio State, vs Northwestern, at Northwestern. Barring chaos elsewhere, 3-1 should do the trick.

Ohio State (14-14, 7-9 Big Ten; RPI 49)

The fact that the Buckeyes in realistic contention for a tourney spot at all is pretty impressive. Over the past three weeks, Ohio State has gotten a massive upset of Wisconsin and nearly another one at Minnesota, while beating Maryland and Indiana rather handily. If Buckeyes can win the next three (vs Northwestern, vs Illinois, at Iowa) then they should be in without needing any help. A loss in that stretch means OSU either needs A) a miracle at Nebraska or B) a committee that’s willing to value the recent improvement over a pretty uninspiring first five weeks: meaningful wins over VCU and Dayton overshadowed by a swath of bad-but-not-terrible losses (Texas Tech, Green Bay, Tulane, Michigan State).

Big 12

Locks (3): Baylor (1), Texas (2), Oklahoma (31)

Just avoid disaster (1): Iowa State (33)

Iowa State (17-9, 8-6 Big 12; RPI 33)

Going into the final two weeks, the Big 12 bubble picture was remarkably stable. Baylor and Texas are obviously in, Oklahoma and Iowa State were almost certainly in, and nobody else really had a chance. Well, OU swept at K-State, and even with two potential bad losses left (vs West Virginia, at TCU) there’s just too much distance between the Sooners and the bubble to feel any anxiety. The Cyclones, however, lost in four at Texas Tech. By itself, that’s not a major issue. But with just two matches left and one of them being against Texas, I’m hesitant to lock in ISU before they visit Kansas next Wednesday. “Just avoid disaster” is probably the wrong description for this category, as it has more to do with the committee than ISU’s results. Even with an 0-2 finish, Iowa State is probably getting in, but I wouldn’t feel 100% confident about it. Just beat Kansas, okay?

SEC

Locks (5): Kentucky (6), Florida (10), Texas A&M (15), Missouri (19), Georgia (30)

Right side of the bubble (1): South Carolina (45)

Need wins (1): Ole Miss (64)

Need wins and help (2): Tennessee (68), LSU (74)

South Carolina (16-10, 8-6 SEC; RPI 45)

Based on South Carolina’s season so far, I can say with some certainty that the Gamecocks are definitely “good” and definitely not “very good.” Six games over .500 against a top-25 schedule sounds nice, but the Gamecocks took the most boring route possible to get to that: South Carolina is 0-10 against teams above them (worst loss is #30 Georgia) and 16-0 against teams worse than them (best win is #64 Ole Miss) – the 5-set loss vs Georgia to open SEC play was a massive missed chance. Two must-wins remain (at Auburn, vs Arkansas) as well as two big opportunities (at Georgia, vs Texas A&M). Win three and the overall RPI should be too good to keep them out. 2-2? Let’s just hope the committee ignores that whole ‘0-12 vs top 50’ part.

Ole Miss (14-11, 6-8 SEC; RPI 64)

The Rebels’ season has been…odd. They went 0-3 in a home tourney on opening weekend, although all three losses were to likely NCAA tourney teams (Rice, Iowa State, UCF). Then the Rebs suddenly rattled off 14 wins in a row, including a marquee win at Missouri and wins over fellow fringe bubble hopefuls Tennessee and LSU. Since then, they’ve lost eight straight, and although most of those can be attributed to the much-tougher schedule, the loss at Alabama really hurts. Unlike every other team in their category, Ole Miss might actually be okay even with a loss because of a brutal ending slate: at Arkansas, at Texas A&M, vs Missouri, at Kentucky – come out of that 3-1, and the Rebels would likely have three top-25 wins and a 50-ish RPI, which bodes well. Winning two of three vs TAMU/Miz/UK is a very tall task by itself.

Tennessee (12-12, 6-8 SEC; RPI 68)

The Vols have won three of their last four to at least force themselves into the fringe conversation after a disappointing follow-up to last year’s breakout season. With a questionable RPI and only one meaningful win available (Missouri), Tennessee unquestionably needs to go 4-0 to have a chance on Selection Sunday. Part of the problem for Tennessee is that the non-conference results have not aged well: the two five-set losses to Illinois have deteriorated from almost-meaningless top-10 losses to bubble losses, and the win over Michigan State has gone from a solid resume-builder to basically worthless. But if UT can finish with a winning SEC mark – which would then include wins over Texas A&M and Missouri – don’t count them out.

LSU (14-11, 8-7 SEC; RPI 74)

The Tigers barely made this list. Even with two big chances left (vs Kentucky and at Missouri), LSU would likely need help in the form of other bubble teams falling and small-conference favorites winning. The non-conference loss at SEC-killer Northern Arizona has gotten much worse as the Lumberjacks have surprisingly gone just 9-5 in Big Sky play. One thing LSU has that the other SEC bubble teams do not: a truly meaningful non-conference win, having won at Iowa State in early September. But even with a 3-0 finish, it seems unlikely LSU’s RPI can jump 20 or so spots to truly be in the mix.

ACC

Locks (3): Pittsburgh (automatic bid already clinched), Louisville, Notre Dame

Just avoid disaster (1): Florida State

Need wins and help (2): North Carolina, Georgia Tech

Florida State (17-8, 10-5 ACC; RPI 37)

The Seminoles looked they were cruising toward being locked some time ago but an 0-3 mark vs the surging ACC bubble teams has delayed the celebration. The sweep of Minnesota on opening weekend is a major boost that almost no other bubble teams can match, and FSU has nothing that could be called a bad loss. A trip to Pitt looms Friday, but the primary concern is just avoiding bad losses: simply beating either Miami or Duke should be enough.

North Carolina (14-11, 11-4 ACC; RPI 55)

The Tar Heels have somehow risen all the way from the bottom tier of the ACC to the bubble watch by going 11-2 since the start of October with a totally excusable loss at Pitt, a reasonable loss to Georgia Tech, and a statement sweep of Florida State. The biggest problem for UNC now is that their RPI isn’t really going to be able to go up any more without help: the closing slate of Duke, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech is only going to hurt. Winning out isn’t the problem here – the Heels need some help in general around the country, but even more helpful would be if FSU can pull the shocker in Pittsburgh.

Georgia Tech (18-8, 11-4 ACC; RPI 63)

The Yellow Jackets have been even hotter than UNC at 10-1 in their last 11 with the only loss when they came up just short at Pitt in what would have been a game-changing result. Going 3-0 the rest of the way is a must – which would include a desperately-needed win over a tourney-bound team in Notre Dame – but also a favorable committee that is willing to emphasize recent performance, looking past losses to Kennesaw State and Boston College and a completely worthless non-conference resume.

WCC

Locks (2): BYU, San Diego

Wrong side of the bubble (1): Pepperdine

Pepperdine (16-10, 12-3 WCC; RPI 53)

The Waves are probably the most dangerous team on the wrong side of the bubble, which can mostly be traced back to their absolutely terrible luck (or lack of clutchness, depending on your viewpoint) early in the year. In their first 14 matches, Pepperdine went just 6-8 despite a positive set margin (32-28) because of an unsightly 0-6 record in five-setters (hardest to swallow was a near-takedown of Pitt in mid-September). They’ve pushed their way up with a 10-2 mark since including a very impressive sweep of San Diego, but still are just 4-8 vs the top 100. Wins vs Santa Clara and San Francisco are required, as is at least a good fight at BYU in the season finale. Committee was very generous to the WCC last year, but the league is significantly weaker in 2019 with LMU and Saint Mary’s both nowhere near the at-large picture. Waves would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if the eye test is valued significantly.

AAC

Locks (2): Cincinnati, UCF

Wrong side of bubble (1): SMU

SMU (18-8, 11-5 AAC; RPI 54)

Mustangs won wide-open AAC West division to clinch the #2 seed and a first-round bye in the inaugural AAC tourney (hosted by UCF), but that may not actually be a good thing for their at-large hopes. With only six teams making AAC tourney, there are no RPI-killers present, so an additional chance to beat a team like Tulsa/Houston/Tulane would be a positive, albeit a small one. If Tulsa upsets UCF in the quarterfinals to get to SMU, the tourney championship might be the only path to the NCAA tournament for SMU. But as long as the Knights hold serve in the opener, a Mustang win vs the defending champs would probably be enough even with a loss in the title game. Dayton getting revenge on VCU in the A-10 tourney would help, too, as the Flyers are just barely on the wrong side of being counted as a top-50 win for SMU.

Big West

Locks (1): Hawaii

Just avoid disaster (2): UCSB, Cal Poly

UCSB (20-5, 10-4 Big West; RPI 32)

Gauchos are drifting the wrong way after a heartbreaker at Hawaii, getting dominated by Cal Poly and then being swept by suddenly red-hot LBSU. Lock doesn’t feel remotely safe with RPI landmines Cal State Fullerton and UC Irvine visiting the Central Coast to close out their schedule, but LBSU is much better than either of these two. Big West performance has been a step back, but at-large bid should be earned with their extremely good non-conference resume: marquee wins over San Diego and UCLA, plus additional wins over VCU and Pepperdine.

Cal Poly (18-8, 11-3 Big West; RPI 36)

An 0-3 opening weekend with a bad loss to Saint Mary’s seems like the distant past as the Mustangs have remained nationally relevant even without Torrey Van Winden on the court. Most of this is the same as travel partner UCSB: pretty close to a lock, just don’t mess up – and Cal Poly seems even less likely to do so, with by far the nation’s longest active home winning streak now at 30 matches. Loss to St. Mary’s is well-countered by a marquee win vs Utah. Split with both Hawaii and UCSB.

Big East

Locks (2): Marquette, Creighton

Need wins (1): Villanova

Villanova (20-8, 11-5 Big East; RPI 58)

Villanova’s shocking upset of Creighton a couple of weeks ago gives the Big East at least a slight chance of sneaking a third team into the NCAAs, but it still seems pretty unlikely. Villanova would need to beat Seton Hall and St. John’s to finish the regular season, then upset whichever of the two heavyweights they end up facing in the semifinal. But if the Wildcats can manage that, they probably don’t need any further help – which is good, because any team that can either beat Creighton twice or beat both Creighton and Marquette should 100% be in the NCAA tournament.

Others

Locks (4): Rice, Western Kentucky, Colorado State (automatic already clinched), Stephen F. Austin

Probably in without auto bid (3): South Dakota (38), Texas State (40), Towson (41)

At least a realistic chance without auto bid (6): Wright State (43), Northern Iowa (46), VCU (47), Green Bay (48), Coastal Carolina (50), Dayton (51)