Fall 2020 #NCAAVB rankings: Week 2

Notes:

Only teams that have played at least one match already will be listed here. That means a couple of things: top teams in conferences not playing fall seasons at all won't be listed; it doesn't mean I think they're worse than teams listed here (think Pac-12 & Big Ten at least for now, plus teams like Hawaii, Creighton, Marquette and Colorado State).

On a similar note, teams playing a fall schedule that starts late won't be ranked until they play their first game (mostly referring to SEC; also applies to the Big 12, ACC and about half of Sun Belt to a lesser extent).

A side effect of doing the rankings this way is that teams playing early will later drop significantly (if not out of rankings entirely) through no fault of their own, simply because more poerful teams open their seasons.

While less than ideal, I feel this is better than the alternative (attempting to rank every team that will play in fall at some point) for a few reasons:

1) It focuses the attention on games happening now. The strong starts by Louisiana and UTEP, for instance, would get swept under the rug.

2) The first few rankings would be incredibly boring because hardly anything would change. Even by next week, Texas State and Stephen F. Austin are the only two teams that will have played a match that could be top 25 teams at this point if B12/SEC/ACC teams were included.

3) Which teams are and aren't playing isn't exactly clear yet, anyway. There have already been a few teams that scheduled matches unexpectedly late (Chattanooga, Citadel) and teams that I was expecting to be playing that there's still no schedule for and may not be playing at all (Abilene Christian, Army, Navy). And that's without accounting for the chaotic scenario (good, but still chaotic) that an entire conference decides to start playing late, which may be happening in Big Ten as we speak.

This may be a weekly ranking of every team to play this fall, or it may stop at just a top 25 once enough teams have played, depending on reader interest and how much time I have to write:

To the rankings!

Records are current through Wed, 9/16.

1) Texas State (3-1)

Trending: down slightly

In three of their four matches, the Bobcats have entered as huge favorites: they're 2-1 in those matches with two five-set wins (including surviving two match points vs UCA) and a 3-1 upset loss to UTEP. Their other result? In a coin-flip matchup at SFA, TXST earned a road sweep, snapping one of the longest home winning streaks in the country. If you can figure this team out, you're ahead of me.

This week: vs HBU twice

2) SFA (5-1)

Trending: down somewhat

Apart from a surprising struggle in S3 vs UCA, the young (but still loaded) Ladyjacks have mostly done what they were supposed to. Losing to Texas State was totally understandable; the downward trend is A) the fact it was a sweep and B) all five other matches were against teams where a team as strong as SFA doesn't really gain much by beating.

This week: idle. Tournament at South Alabama cancelled due to Hurricane Sally.

3) Louisiana (4-0)

Trending: up significantly

Hali Wisnoskie's dominant start not only has the Cajuns 4-0, but two of those wins came in convincing fashion against a South Alabama squad that finished ahead of UL in the Sun Belt standings last year. Hot finish to 2019 in Lafayette probably not a coincidence...

This week: vs Lamar twice. UCA was originally scheduled to make it a 3-team tourney but had to withdraw due to positive COVID tests.

4) UTEP (1-1)

Trending: up significantly

One of the most improved teams in the country from 2018 to 2019 took a big step toward continuing their ascent in 2020 as the Miners not only split with heavily favored Texas State, but were closer to going 2-0 than 0-2. UTEP should be able to move into second tier of C-USA alongside teams like FAU, UTSA, North Texas and Marshall.

This week: idle

5) South Alabama (0-2)

Trending: down significantly

A great home team and mediocre road team last year, USA looks to be continuing at least the latter part that trend as they were run over by hot Cajuns last weekend, Jags now sit for awhile due to Hurricane Sally.

This week: idle. Home tourney vs SFA and ULM cancelled due to Hurricane Sally. Sun Belt opener vs Coastal Carolina next week also postponed; back in action in two weeks vs Troy.

6) Central Arkansas (0-2)

Trending: up somewhat

0-2 record doesn't show the fact that Sugar Bears looked really solid vs TXST and SFA two weeks ago, taking Bobcats to a pair of match points and also grabbing a set vs the Ladyjacks. Not going to play again for a while, though: missed three games last week and will now be out until at least October after back-to-back weeks of positive COVID tests.

This week: idle. Dropped out of Louisiana tourney due to positive COVID tests.

7) Houston Baptist (1-3)

Trending: up slightly

Haven't learned much about Huskies yet, as losses to Louisiana (twice) and SFA were expected and win over ULM doesn't really move the needle much, either.

This week: at Texas State twice

8) Mercer (1-0)

Trending: flat

Won season opener in four as a fairly significant favorite vs fellow SoCon member Citadel, but it wasn't as dominant as it could have been.

This week: vs Georgia State

9) UL-Monroe (1-2)

Trending: up slightly

Minor upset of Lamar to open season lost some luster with loss to HBU and realization that Lamar had only seven players dressed to play. Still, beating a team that swept you in 2019 is a significant plus.

This week: idle. Tournament at South Alabama cancelled due to Hurricane Sally. Back in action next week.

10) Chattanooga (1-0)

Trending: up somewhat

With just one match scheduled for fall, the Mocs got as much as they could out of it, pulling a minor upset vs Georgia State with a wild 24-22 fifth set.

This week: idle. Fall season is over.

11) Georgia State (0-1)

Trending: down somewhat

Minor upset loss to Chattanooga not a huge deal in of itself, but a bigger issue moving forward in Sun Belt play: with no cross-divisional games this year, seems likely that the only chances for Georgia State to get wins in conference without a pretty big upset will be the four meetings with rival Georgia Southern.

This week: at Mercer

12) Lamar (0-3)

Trending: down somewhat

Just seven players total travelled to tourney at SFA. Getting swept twice by SFA is totally harmless; losing a fairly close 4-setter to a ULM team you swept last year isn't a disaster, but it certainly isn't good.

This week: at Louisiana twice.

13) Citadel (0-1)

Trending: flat

Took a set and put up a reasonable fight as a significant underdog at SoCon rival Mercer.

This week: at Virginia Tech, at Virginia

Teams scheduled to open this week:

Virginia Tech: vs Citadel

Virginia: vs Citadel

Little Rock: vs Missouri State (twice, but first match is exhibition)

Missouri State: at Little Rock (twice, but first match is exhibition)